- Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?58¢
- Will Pat Callaghan win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?5¢
- Will Adam Harrison win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?2¢
- Will Richard Olszewski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?4¢
- Will Sarah Hayward win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?2¢
- Will Tricia Leman win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?2¢
- Will Georgia Gould win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?<1¢
- Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?28¢
- Will Lorna Jane Russell win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?1¢
- Will David Stansell win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?8¢
- Will Hamza Chowdhury win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?5¢
- Will Jim Monahan win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?<1¢
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Sagal Abdi-Wali leads the market at 68% as Labour’s presumptive candidate in the safe seat vacated by Keir Starmer’s resignation on 1 September 2026. The constituency’s long Labour history and strong local council results underpin trader consensus that the party will retain it despite the by-election. Abdi-Wali, Camden council leader and a prominent local figure, is the frontrunner for Labour’s nomination, with selection scheduled for 9 September. Zack Polanski’s announcement on 3 September that he will seek the Green nomination has positioned the Greens as the clearest challenger at 27%, capitalising on their third-place finish in 2024 and recent local gains. Lower-priced candidates reflect limited name recognition or party infrastructure, while the absence of Andrew Feinstein narrows the field. No polling date exists yet, but the contest is expected within weeks once the writ is moved.