- Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
U.S.-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since March 2026 have included targeted strikes on Iranian defensive positions and infrastructure across islands such as Hengam, Qeshm, and Greater Tunb, with a July 15 strike hitting Hengam itself. These actions followed earlier raids on oil facilities and air defenses but have not produced ground operations or shifts in territorial administration. Iran maintains primary governmental and military authority over Hengam, has expanded its operational zone in the strait, and continues to enforce maritime rules while pursuing diplomatic channels. Trader consensus assigns low probability to any near-term loss of control, reflecting the absence of occupation scenarios and Iran's reinforced posture through August 2026.