- Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?<1¢<1%
- Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?4¢4%
US-Israeli strikes have repeatedly targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps positions and military infrastructure on Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz during 2026 escalations, including reported attacks in July and earlier months, alongside broader strikes on related oil and coastal facilities. These actions have caused localized damage, oil pollution affecting nearby islands, and displacement of residents, yet official reports and satellite observations confirm continued Iranian administrative and military authority without any verified occupation, seizure, or transfer of sovereignty. Trader sentiment reflects the island’s strategic value for Hormuz shipping lanes and Iranian defenses, balanced against the absence of ground operations or diplomatic shifts capable of altering control by resolution deadlines. Ongoing naval tensions and potential further strikes remain key variables within the current conflict window.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.