Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?1¢
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?4¢
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?9¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
US strikes on military targets at Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal began in March 2026 as part of broader operations tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade by Iranian forces, with additional strikes reported into April and July. President Trump has publicly discussed seizing the island—responsible for the bulk of Iran's crude exports—to gain leverage over oil infrastructure and markets, though no ground operation has occurred. Iran has reinforced air defenses and military personnel on the island in response, while a US naval blockade has sharply curtailed tanker traffic and exports. An April ceasefire paused major combat but left ongoing frictions, including strikes on vessels near the terminal. Trader probabilities remain low for Iranian loss of control by late 2026, reflecting the risks of escalation, economic fallout from full seizure, and preference for negotiated or blockade-based pressure over direct occupation.