- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?3¢3%
Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have included targeted strikes on Iranian military sites at Kharg Island, including recent operations hitting air defenses, radar, and other non-oil infrastructure, while leaving export terminals operational. A US naval blockade has sharply curtailed crude loadings at the island, Iran’s primary export hub handling the bulk of its seaborne shipments, with reports of extended halts followed by limited resumption in early November. Iranian authorities continue to exercise governmental and military control, conducting air-defense drills and managing port activity amid regional shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Market resolution requires verifiable transfer of primary control to another state or force rather than temporary disruptions or strikes, with no reported ground operations or occupation to date. Traders assess the probability of such a shift by year-end as low given the pattern of calibrated military pressure without territorial seizure.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.