- Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?53¢
- Will Ken Yee Chew win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?45¢
- Will Ryan Meunier win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?3¢
- Will Evaristo Ramos Jr. win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?1¢
- Will John Edward Krusky win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?<1¢
- Will Rajee Sinha win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?<1¢
The 2026 Guelph, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Guelph, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Guelph, Ontario.
The open mayoral seat following incumbent Cam Guthrie’s decision not to seek re-election has produced a competitive contest centered on sitting councillors Leanne Caron and Ken Yee Chew. Caron, with nearly two decades of council experience and an early announcement, holds a modest edge in trader pricing over Chew, who entered in June citing a leadership vacuum and emphasizing responsible government and community focus. The remaining four candidates trail sharply, consistent with limited prior visibility or electoral records. Nominations closed only days ago with no public polling, major endorsements, or high-profile debates yet available, which has kept probabilities clustered near even for the frontrunners. Scheduled town halls, platform releases on affordability and housing, and shifts in local coverage ahead of advance voting in mid-October represent the main near-term catalysts that could create separation.