- Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?1¢1%
- Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?8¢8%
Iran maintains continuous military control over Greater Tunb Island in the Persian Gulf through garrisons, an airstrip, and naval assets, consistent with its 1971 occupation of the Tunb Islands and Abu Musa. Recent diplomatic friction centers on a late-October 2026 joint statement by the UAE and Canada urging an end to what they described as Iran’s occupation and calling for bilateral talks or referral to the International Court of Justice. Iranian officials promptly rejected these claims as baseless, reiterating the islands’ status as sovereign territory and criticizing external endorsements. Earlier 2026 U.S. strikes on related sites during regional conflict did not alter Iranian administration. The long-standing dispute shows no active military challenge or negotiated transfer, with UAE positions unchanged from prior UN statements and Iran treating sovereignty as non-negotiable.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.