- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?<1¢
- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?2¢
- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.6%?12¢
- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?30¢
- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?46¢
- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?12¢
Germany’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader focus on temporary drags from low Rhine water levels disrupting inland shipping and energy-intensive sectors, alongside elevated energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict that weighed on private consumption and industrial output after Q2’s 0.2% expansion. Bundesbank’s October 21 assessment of stagnation or mild contraction due to these factors and fading stockpiling effects has tempered expectations, yet the 1.0-1.2% bucket leads at 46% implied probability amid earlier government nowcasts near 0.6% and resilient export orders. The official preliminary release on October 30 will resolve the market, with any Q4 rebound signals potentially supporting the current clustering around 0.7-1.2%.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.