- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?3¢
- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?<1¢
- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.6%?6¢
- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?20¢
- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?54¢
- Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?17¢
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent Q2 GDP data revisions showing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, driven by exports, combined with the Ifo business climate index reaching its highest level in a year at 88.8, have positioned the 1.0-1.2% outcome as the market-implied favorite at 53.5%. Analysts note that expansionary fiscal policy and improving industrial orders provide underlying support, though elevated energy prices at 2.7% inflation and potential transport constraints from Rhine water levels could cap momentum near stagnation in the near term. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on a modest rebound amid these crosscurrents, with the Q3 flash release expected in late October serving as the next key catalyst for price adjustments.