Fed Decision in January?
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?5¢
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?14¢
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?62¢
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?21¢
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?2¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing modestly to 3.4% year-over-year while remaining above the Fed's 2% target, alongside stable labor market conditions with unemployment near 4.1%, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate currently sits at 3.50%-3.75% after consecutive holds, with futures markets and recent dissents signaling a modest tightening bias that supports the 61.5% implied probability for unchanged policy. Elevated core readings near 2.5% and resilient growth metrics continue to outweigh calls for easing, though upcoming September inflation releases and the next FOMC statement could shift these probabilities if data surprise to the downside.