- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?40¢40%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?60¢60%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?1¢1%
- 0.5%50+ bps decrease$572.5k Vol.
- 0.5%25 bps decrease$564.2k Vol.
- 6%39.5%No change$704.2k Vol.
- 6%59.5%25 bps increase$823k Vol.
- 1%50+ bps increase$486.7k Vol.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 59.5% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the January FOMC meeting, reflecting market pricing of persistent inflation above target and a resilient labor market that has limited scope for easing. Recent data releases, including October CPI and employment figures, have reinforced expectations for tighter policy relative to the Fed's latest dot plot projections. This contrasts with the 37.5% probability of no change, as traders weigh the balance between growth momentum and any early signs of cooling in consumer spending. Key upcoming catalysts include the December CPI release and December FOMC communications, which could shift the market-implied rate path if inflation trends moderate faster than anticipated.
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.