- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?1¢1%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?88¢88%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?10¢10%
- 0.2%50+ bps decrease$4m Vol.
- 0.4%25 bps decrease$4.6m Vol.
- 2%1.4%No change$7.3m Vol.
- 2%87.5%25 bps increase$7.9m Vol.
- 1%10.3%50+ bps increase$5.4m Vol.
Strong labor market data and above-target inflation readings through October 2026 have driven the 87.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus on the need for further monetary tightening. Resilient GDP growth and elevated Treasury yields have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive stance rather than pause or ease policy. The 10.3% probability attached to a 50 basis point or larger increase captures residual uncertainty around the exact pace, while sub-2% odds for no change or cuts highlight limited scope for dovish surprises. November employment and CPI releases scheduled before the meeting represent the next key catalysts likely to shape final positioning.
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.