- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026<1¢<1%
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?3¢3%
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?6¢6%
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?20¢20%
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?38¢38%
- 0.8%November 30, 2026$61k Vol.
- 2.6%December 31, 2026$2.5m Vol.
- 1%6.4%March 31, 2027$57.1k Vol.
- 20%June 30, 2027$11.9k Vol.
- 37.5%December 31, 2027$15.6k Vol.
Friedrich Merz’s position as chancellor of the CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition faces sustained pressure from record-low personal approval ratings and weak national polling for his party, which trails the AfD in multiple surveys. Recent state election defeats in eastern Germany have intensified internal CDU discussions about a leadership change, while coalition frictions over the 2027 budget, welfare adjustments, and tax measures have prompted compromises and delays. Ongoing foreign policy engagement on Ukraine and European security has not offset domestic discontent, and nearly half of voters in recent polls favor an early end to the current government. The next key tests involve completing budget negotiations and managing potential coalition strains ahead of any confidence procedures or state-level developments.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.