- Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?11¢
- Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?91¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Florida's Republican lean and Ashley Moody's position as the appointed incumbent have anchored trader consensus around a strong GOP hold in the November 2026 special election to complete Marco Rubio's term. Moody secured her party's nomination with little opposition, while recent polling consistently shows her ahead of Democratic nominee Angie Nixon by 8–10 points in a state where Republicans have dominated recent Senate contests. Nixon's upset primary victory over Alex Vindman on August 18 introduced a more progressive challenger whose statewide appeal remains limited by fundraising gaps and Florida's electoral demographics. The 90-plus percent implied probability for Republicans reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major disruptions since the primaries. A narrow path for Democrats would require substantial late shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, unforeseen national events altering the midterm environment, or significant campaign developments that close the current polling gap before Election Day.