- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?91¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?10¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?5¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?36¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?10¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?4¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Recent resilience in U.S. growth and inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of early September 2026, up from sub-4.3% levels earlier in the year. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has adopted a more hawkish stance, with the median dot plot signaling a higher neutral rate and limited easing ahead, while elevated fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply continue to lift term premia. Traders are watching the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI prints, and employment data for signals on whether yields test higher thresholds before year-end 2026 resolution. Market-implied odds reflect this higher-for-longer environment amid persistent uncertainty around policy and fiscal dynamics.