- Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?2¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Farsi Island remains a small, restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the northern Persian Gulf with no reported changes in sovereignty amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. U.S. military actions have focused on larger strategic sites such as Kharg for oil infrastructure pressure and Qeshm, Larak, and the Tunb islands near the Strait of Hormuz to counter Iranian threats to shipping, leaving the tiny Farsi outpost untouched by strikes, raids, or occupation plans. Trader consensus reflects this lower priority, with implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September staying below 5 percent. Any shift would require confirmed military seizure or handover, which has not materialized despite ongoing regional operations and diplomatic maneuvering.