- Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election?27¢
- Will Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen win the Falealili 1 by-election?4¢
- Will Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea win the Falealili 1 by-election?4¢
- Will Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai win the Falealili 1 by-election?1¢
- Will Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu win the Falealili 1 by-election?5¢
- Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election?40¢
- Will Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko win the Falealili 1 by-election?22¢
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
The crowded field of more than a dozen candidates in Samoa's Falealili 1 by-election, set for 18 September 2026, has produced tightly clustered trader odds. The vacancy arose after the Court of Appeal upheld the voiding of former FAST MP and Deputy Prime Minister Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo's 2025 win on bribery grounds. FAST has fielded several nominees including Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale, while HRPP backs Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu and Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko returns as a contender alongside independents. This fragmentation and the absence of a clear frontrunner sustain the even probabilities across leading names. Pre-polling begins 16 September, and any consolidation of party or voter blocs ahead of the official count could shift positioning before resolution by the Office of the Electoral Commission.