- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?2¢2%
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?12¢12%
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?29¢29%
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?33¢33%
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?18¢18%
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?7¢7%
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?2¢2%
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?2¢2%
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?1¢1%
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?<1¢<1%
The closely matched market-implied odds for Elon Musk’s tweet volume over the October 31–November 2 window reflect uncertainty around his typical daily output of 20–40 posts colliding with a major political catalyst. The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 have heightened trader focus on Musk’s X activity, as historical patterns show elevated posting rates during campaign cycles when he comments on candidates, polls, and policy debates. Halloween weekend adds lighter cultural noise, but election-related developments—such as last-minute rallies, endorsements, or real-time reactions—remain the dominant swing factor that could push totals into the leading 65–114 range. Traders are pricing in consistent platform engagement while acknowledging that breaking news or Musk’s own schedule could shift the final count by dozens of tweets.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 31 12:00 PM ET to November 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.