- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?2¢2%
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?23¢23%
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?38¢38%
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?24¢24%
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?10¢10%
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?3¢3%
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?1¢1%
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?<1¢<1%
Trader consensus positions the 65-89 tweet range as the narrow leader at 37.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's October 22-24 activity on X, just ahead of 40-64 at 32%, reflecting his historically variable posting pace. Musk's volume often rises with Tesla or SpaceX updates, political commentary, or responses to trending topics, where his replies fuel engagement loops. Daily averages typically range from 10-40 posts, so three-day totals hinge on news catalysts or quiet stretches. The tight spread highlights uncertainty around any company announcements or cultural flashpoints that could push totals higher, while traders note the platform's real-time dynamics and Musk's selective engagement patterns as key swing factors in this closely contested window.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 22 12:00 PM ET to October 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.