- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?4¢4%
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?28¢28%
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?41¢41%
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?21¢21%
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?6¢6%
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?1¢1%
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?<1¢<1%
- 2%4.1%<40$19.9k Vol.
- 4%27.5%40-64$20.4k Vol.
- 5%41%65-89$5.3k Vol.
- 4%20.5%90-114$6.7k Vol.
- 5%5.5%115-139$4.7k Vol.
- 2%1.2%140-164$2.8k Vol.
- 1%0.4%165-189$11.9k Vol.
- 2%0.3%190-214$8k Vol.
Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk posting 65-89 times across November 9-11, driven by his established pattern of moderate daily activity on X that typically ranges from 20-30 posts when no major product launches or breaking news dominate his feed. This volume aligns with recent verified posting rates, where business updates, replies, and commentary have sustained steady but not extreme output without external spikes from elections, earnings, or viral moments. The adjacent 40-64 and 90-114 brackets capture the natural variance traders anticipate over a short three-day window, while probabilities drop sharply above 115 due to the absence of catalysts that historically push daily counts higher. The market resolves strictly on timestamped X activity, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift with any late developments.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 9 12:00 PM ET to November 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.