- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?4¢4%
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?22¢22%
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?44¢44%
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?23¢23%
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?6¢6%
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?2¢2%
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?<1¢<1%
Traders see the 65-89 tweet range as the narrow frontrunner at 37.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s November 5-7 output, with the 40-64 bin close behind at 27.5%, reflecting a closely contested market shaped by his variable daily posting pace. Recent platform activity, engagement with major news cycles, and any scheduled X-related announcements or personal appearances typically drive volume swings, while historical patterns show Musk averaging roughly 20-30 posts on quieter days versus spikes above 40 during high-profile moments. With the short three-day window now underway, the next chart updates and real-time activity will serve as the key swing factors for position adjustments.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 5 12:00 PM ET to November 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.