- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?53¢
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?21¢
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?23¢
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?5¢
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?2¢
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 31 12:00 PM ET to September 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent tracking data shows Elon Musk averaging roughly 40-50 posts daily in August 2026, including replies and quotes, though weekend and holiday periods often see reduced volume as business and launch-related activity slows. Over the Labor Day weekend (August 31–September 2), traders have priced the 40-64 range as the clear favorite at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations of lighter posting without major SpaceX, Tesla, or xAI catalysts on the calendar. The next tier (65-89) sits at 22.5%, while sub-40 remains plausible if engagement dips sharply. No high-profile announcements or controversies are scheduled to spike activity, and historical patterns around U.S. holiday weekends support the market’s consensus on moderated output.