- Will the Republican Party win the CA-13 House seat?6¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat?94¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in California's 13th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the district's post-redistricting partisan shift toward Democrats and Gray's narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat. The top-two primary narrowed the contest to Gray and Republican Kevin Lincoln, with forecasters rating the race Lean or Likely Democratic on the strength of voter registration patterns, Central Valley demographics, and Gray's fundraising edge. Trader consensus around a 93-plus percent Democratic probability aligns with the district's fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would reopen the race. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national tailwind, a significant late-cycle scandal, or turnout collapse among Democratic-leaning voters in the Stockton-influenced portions of the district.