- Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?67¢67%
- Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?31¢31%
Incumbent Mike Thompson holds a clear edge in the CA-04 general election due to his long congressional tenure, strong performance in the June top-two primary, and endorsements from Democratic leadership and labor groups. The district’s solid Democratic lean favors the veteran representative seeking a 15th term, even as challenger Eric Jones, a former venture capitalist, has self-funded record sums exceeding $18 million and secured some cross-party support. Recent debates highlighted differences on affordability, health care, and data centers, yet Jones trails significantly in early vote shares. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages for Thompson alongside Jones’s financial push, with the November 3 contest remaining the key resolution trigger.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).