Berlin State Election Winner
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?17¢
- Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?3¢
- Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?41¢
- Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?<1¢
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?31¢
- Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?8¢
- Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?<1¢
- Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polling for Berlin's September 20, 2026, state election shows a fragmented contest in the city's proportional representation system, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne trading narrow leads in the 16-22% range and SPD further back. This volatility, including AfD topping some July surveys for the first time and Linke edging ahead in others, keeps the implied probability of any single party securing the most seats closely matched. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Wegner faces pressure from shifting voter priorities on housing, migration, and the economy, while no party appears positioned for an outright majority. Late-campaign developments such as turnout differentials, televised debates, or economic indicators could widen gaps before election day.