- Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?12¢
- Will SPD win between 10% and 13% of all valid second votes?51¢
- Will SPD win between 13% and 16% of all valid second votes?33¢
- Will SPD win at least 16% of all valid second votes?8¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election place the SPD between 11% and 15%, with the most recent Infratest dimap survey at 11% and averages near 13%. The party has fallen from 18.4% in the 2023 repeat election while serving as junior partner in the CDU-led coalition, losing ground to Die Linke, which polls near 20%. Low turnout among traditional SPD voters, competition from the Greens and AfD, and limited campaign momentum have kept support compressed in the low-to-mid teens. Traders assign the highest probability to the 10-13% band, consistent with the latest fieldwork, while assigning lower odds to both sub-10% and 16%+ outcomes given the narrow range of recent results and the short time remaining before the vote.