- Will Grüne win at least 20% of all valid second votes?4¢
- Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?48¢
- Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?23¢
- Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?28¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polls conducted in late August 2026 place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 15–18 percent, with the most recent Infratest dimap survey showing 18 percent and earlier Civey and Forsa results clustering around 15–16 percent. This range aligns with the market’s leading 14–17 percent and 17–20 percent outcomes amid a fragmented field where CDU, Linke, and AfD each hover near or above 18–21 percent while SPD support remains at historic lows. The absence of a distinct late-campaign surge for the Greens or their top candidate, combined with the tight five-party contest and the September 20 election date, has kept trader consensus centered on these two intervals rather than extremes below 14 percent or above 20 percent.