- Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?75¢
- Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?10¢
- Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?8¢
- Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?7¢
- Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?6¢
- Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?1¢
Morena holds a commanding position in the Baja California state congress with a current majority of seats secured in prior cycles, positioning it as the frontrunner for the 25-seat renewal scheduled for June 2027. Trader consensus reflects the party's sustained organizational strength and recent internal coordination efforts, including candidate selection processes in key municipalities. The formal start of the local electoral process in December 2026 and the concurrent federal preparations have reinforced expectations of continuity, while opposition parties such as PAN, PVEM, PT, MC, and PRI register lower implied probabilities amid fragmented internal contests and limited recent gains in the state. Scheduled precampaigns and registration deadlines in early 2027 remain key variables that could influence final seat distributions.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 25 members of the Congress of the State of Baja California are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Baja California as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Baja California and Mexico, including the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California (https://ieebc.mx/).