AZ-09 House Election Winner
- Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-09 House seat?4¢
- Will the Republican Party win the AZ-09 House seat?95¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 9th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 that delivered him roughly two-thirds of the vote in 2024. Gosar advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky likewise secured her party’s nomination without opposition. Nonpartisan analysts rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and the absence of competitive challengers or recent developments that would alter the balance. The November 3, 2026, general election outcome could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s structural Republican advantage.