- Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?49¢
- Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?20¢
- Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?16¢
- Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?9¢
- Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?6¢
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Geopolitical tensions and persistent Houthi threats continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, positioning sub-25 daily transits as the dominant market-implied outcome at 47.6%. Recent Kpler data shows 18 commodity vessels crossing on September 2, below the 10-day average of roughly 24, while tanker transits averaged just 1.9 per day over the latest seven days—a 65% drop from prior levels. Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict dynamics, Saudi-linked shipping risks, elevated war-risk premiums, and carrier diversions around the Cape of Good Hope have kept volumes well below pre-2023 norms of around 70+ daily crossings. With resolution near the end of September, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of rapid normalization absent a sustained de-escalation in Red Sea hostilities.