- Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?47¢
- Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?26¢
- Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?14¢
- Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?9¢
- Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?4¢
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ongoing Houthi attacks and blockade threats targeting Saudi-linked and other commercial tonnage remain the dominant driver behind the 46.9% implied probability for fewer than 25 daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by end-September. Recent AIS and Kpler data show volumes fluctuating between roughly 30–41 vessels per day in July–August, well below the pre-crisis baseline near 70, as carriers maintain Cape of Good Hope diversions amid war-risk premium spikes and selective targeting. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices in persistent security constraints and limited near-term de-escalation, with any fresh incidents or expanded restrictions likely to reinforce downside pressure on volumes ahead of month-end resolution.