- Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 6?1¢1%
- Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 8?5¢5%
- Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 15?31¢31%
- Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 22?72¢72%
- Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 30?93¢93%
The Alaska U.S. Senate race between Democratic challenger Mary Peltola and incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan remains too close to call, with Peltola holding a slim lead of roughly 600 votes at 48.2% to 47.9% after about 74% of ballots reported. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system requires tabulation of second and subsequent preferences if no candidate reaches a first-choice majority, a process scheduled to begin November 18 after additional mail and absentee ballots are counted on November 10 and 13. The Associated Press has not projected a winner because preliminary tallies show both major candidates below 50%, other candidates including Gerald Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan split the remainder, and legal challenges tied to the namesake candidate continue. Certification is set for November 25, leaving traders focused on the pace of remaining ballots and any shifts from ranked-choice redistribution.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press (AP) calls the winner of the 2026 United States Senate general election in Alaska between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A call refers to the AP publicly declaring a winner of the race. A call for any candidate will qualify. Calls, projections, or declarations by any other news organization, or certification of results by the State of Alaska, will not qualify. A call made within the specified window will qualify even if it is later retracted. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.