- Will Gavin Solomon advance from the AK-AL primary election?<1¢
- Will John Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election?42¢
- Will Matthew "Bronco" Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election?1¢
- Will Matt Schultz advance from the AK-AL primary election?31¢
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Incumbent Republican Nick Begich maintains a strong lead in Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary for the at-large House seat, with independent Bill Hill in clear second place after vote updates through late August. Democrat Matt Schultz, who suspended his campaign in July and endorsed Hill, still appears on ballots but has withdrawn, shifting the remaining advancement spots toward low-profile candidates including Democrat Eric Hafner and John Williams. Alaska’s nonpartisan open primary system advances the top four regardless of party to the November ranked-choice general, and ongoing absentee ballot counting through August 28 with certification expected August 31 continues to shape final advancement probabilities reflected in trader consensus.