0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
- 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?53¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a naval blockade imposed in April 2026 and Iranian demands for sanctions relief plus reparations before any reopening, have sharply reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic. Recent ship attacks attributed to Iran, including two vessels on August 14, contributed to near-standstill conditions with only two transits recorded on August 15 and none involving crude oil. Daily averages have fallen well below pre-conflict norms amid mine clearance operations, elevated insurance costs, and military escorts in designated lanes. Trader assessments of a complete zero-transit day by late August reflect these persistent disruptions, potential further US economic measures, and Iranian statements conditioning resumed passage on specific concessions, while noting that partial flows via alternative corridors or limited commercial risk-taking could still occur.