Constitutional authority over election administration rests with the states and Congress rather than the executive branch, a structural limit repeatedly affirmed by federal courts that have blocked Trump administration executive orders and DOJ actions seeking broader federal control. Recent judicial decisions have halted efforts to mandate proof-of-citizenship requirements, alter mail voting rules, and compel states to purge voter rolls or segregate ballots based on federal lists. The Attorney General has publicly stated there are no plans to assume control of state elections, while legislative priorities such as the SAVE Act have stalled in the Senate. Ongoing DOJ lawsuits targeting specific certifications or voter data have encountered swift legal challenges and appeals court rebuffs ahead of the midterms, reinforcing trader expectations that full nationalization remains outside executive reach.
如果唐纳德·特朗普在 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 前签署任何联邦立法使其成为法律,或采取任何行政行动,创设联邦政府对先前由地方管理的联邦选举行政事务行使直接行政控制的新法律权限,则该市场将判定为“是”。否则,此市场将判定为“否”。 符合条件的立法或行动必须旨在授予联邦政府持续控制权,涵盖在一个以上州的辖区内,先前由州或地方层级负责的联邦选举计票、选举结果认证,或选举日实际投票。对地方选举主管机构提供的临时联邦支持,或履行先前已获认可的联邦选举职责,均不计入。 主要判定依据将是美国联邦政府的官方信息,以及可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议,以原文为准。