- 美国会在2026年入侵格陵兰吗？3¢
The absence of any official U.S. statements, policy documents, or military planning signals toward Greenland underpins the 97.4% implied probability that no invasion will occur in 2026. Greenland remains Danish territory and a NATO ally, with longstanding U.S. access to the Thule Air Base supporting shared defense and Arctic monitoring objectives. No recent diplomatic breakdowns, resource disputes, or geopolitical escalations involving Denmark, Russia, or China have altered this baseline. Traders reflect this stable framework through consistent pricing that treats military action against an alliance partner as structurally improbable. Late developments such as a fundamental shift in Danish NATO commitments or an unforeseen Arctic security crisis could theoretically reopen discussion, though such triggers remain outside current evidence.
规则
如果美国在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前发起旨在控制格陵兰陆地领土任何部分的军事攻势，此市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 就本市场而言，格陵兰的陆地领土是指截至市场创建时，丹麦承认为丹麦王国内格陵兰自治领土一部分的所有领土。 本市场的结算依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。