- 俄罗斯会在2026年入侵另一个国家吗？7¢
- 截至2027年12月31日，俄罗斯会入侵另一个国家吗？19¢
Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on the risk of a new invasion elsewhere by late 2026. President Putin recently declared the establishment of a non-negotiable "security zone" spanning roughly 660 km inside Ukraine along the border, explicitly ruling out concessions in any talks and tying the move to prior Ukrainian actions in Kursk. This occurs alongside intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and reports of Ukrainian advances in select sectors. Concurrently, Russian drone incidents have affected airspace and vessels in Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria, prompting NATO members to heighten alerts and request additional defensive support. Intelligence assessments highlight Moscow's hybrid activities and long-term scenario planning involving Poland and the Baltics, though Russian officials continue to state no intent to attack NATO territory. NATO commanders have outlined updated contingency plans focused on blocking and blunting potential advances. These developments, set against Russia's resource commitments in Ukraine, inform assessments of escalation thresholds and timelines.
规则
如果俄罗斯在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前发动军事攻势，意图控制任何联合国会员国（乌克兰除外）领土的任何部分，此市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 就本市场而言，在市场创建时由任何联合国会员国实际控制的土地，将被视为该国的主权领土。 本市场的结算依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。