- 俄罗斯会在10月31日前再次进入特尔努瓦特吗？92¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces briefly infiltrated Ternuvate, a rural settlement in Zaporizhzhia Oblast roughly 10-15 km behind the line of contact, in late January 2026 through small sabotage groups exploiting weather conditions. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces quickly cleared the village within hours, eliminating or capturing the infiltrators and refuting Russian claims of control. Ukrainian statements through February and March confirmed ongoing Ukrainian control despite isolated Russian attempts to plant flags or spread disinformation for domestic propaganda. The settlement lies in an active sector where Russian units have redeployed airborne elements and conducted repeated small-group probes, while Ukrainian forces have conducted sweeps and reported territorial gains elsewhere on the axis. No major verified Russian entry has occurred since the initial clearance, though the proximity to contested lines sustains the risk of future infiltration attempts.