- 伊朗领导层会在10月31日之前发生变动吗？1¢
- 伊朗领导层会在11月30日之前发生变动吗？9¢
- 伊朗领导层会在12月31日之前发生变动吗？14¢
- 伊朗领导层会在2027年6月30日之前发生变动吗？25¢
Mojtaba Khamenei was selected Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes that opened the current conflict. Recent diplomatic signals, including coordination on a Strait of Hormuz reopening proposal and rejection of immediate de-escalation demands, indicate the new leader maintains authority despite health speculation and reported internal strains within the clerical and security establishments. The Revolutionary Guards' backing and the Assembly's rapid appointment have supported continuity, while stalled negotiations and ongoing military pressure limit near-term shifts. Trader consensus prices further leadership change as low probability through late 2026, rising modestly into 2027, reflecting the system's institutional mechanisms for succession and the absence of verified challenges to Mojtaba's position in the past month.
规则
如果伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在市场创建至所列日期（ET）之间的任何时候不再是伊朗的实际领导人，该市场将结算为 "是"。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 如果穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊被罢黜、遭到拘留，或以其他方式失去职位，或在本市场的时间范围内被阻止以伊朗实际领导人的身份行事，则视为他不再是伊朗的实际领导人。 如果官方宣布穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊辞职或被免职，无论公告所述的离任何时生效，都符合结算为 "是" 的条件。 本市场结算的主要依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。