- 伊朗会将同性婚姻合法化吗？1¢1%
Iran’s Islamic Penal Code, grounded in Sharia principles since the 1979 Revolution, criminalizes all same-sex conduct with penalties ranging from flogging to execution and provides no legal recognition for same-sex partnerships or marriage. No legislative proposals, policy shifts, or official statements indicating movement toward legalization have emerged in recent years. Trader consensus at 98.3% for “No” reflects this entrenched framework, where constitutional and religious institutions prioritize traditional marriage definitions. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major political transition, sustained external diplomatic pressure prompting reforms, or internal reinterpretation of religious law, though such changes would require overcoming significant structural and institutional barriers within the current system.
规则
如果伊朗政府在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 之前于伊朗境内任何地方依法承认两名同性人士之间的婚姻，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 法律承认是指任何法律、宪法修正案或具有约束力的司法裁决，允许两名同性成年人结婚，并根据伊朗法律享有与异性婚姻相同的法律地位。 该承认必须适用于伊朗法律体系，并允许同性伴侣缔结法律上有效且经伊朗民事或宗教主管部门承认的婚姻。该承认必须在所列截止期限前生效。 将民事结合、同居伴侣关系或其他不赋予婚姻法律地位的有限承认形式合法化，不符合条件。 承认在国外缔结的婚姻，但不允许在伊朗境内缔结此类婚姻，不符合条件。 主要判定依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。