- Clarence Thomas 会在 2026年12月31日 前宣布退休吗？18¢18%
- Clarence Thomas 会在 2027年6月30日 前宣布退休吗？27¢27%
Justice Clarence Thomas, the 78-year-old longest-serving member of the current Supreme Court and a George H.W. Bush appointee, has not announced retirement plans as of early November 2026. Speculation centers on the post-midterm lame-duck session, where Senate control will determine confirmation prospects for any successor. Democrats hold strong odds of gaining the chamber, raising the prospect that a delayed departure could face opposition from the incoming majority. Thomas has previously dismissed retirement talk and appears positioned to pursue the record for longest tenure, which he would reach in 2028. Neither he nor Justice Samuel Alito has signaled an imminent exit despite their ages and the strategic window before the new Congress convenes in January 2027. Recent court activity, including Thomas questioning counsel for the first time in years, shows continued engagement. Traders monitor Senate results and any public statements or health updates that could prompt an announcement before the session ends.
规则
如果 Clarence Thomas 在指定日期 23:59 ET 前宣布将从美国最高法院大法官职位上退休，此市场将以“是”结算。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 他宣布的退休时间可以是立即生效、本届最高法院任期结束时，或未来任何时候。 Thomas 的任何符合条件的公告都将计入“是”结算，无论其宣布的退休是否实际生效。 此市场的结算依据为 Thomas 或其任何一位官方代表发布的官方公告。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。