- 民主党会赢得2028年美国总统选举吗？68¢68%
- 共和党会赢得2028年美国总统大选吗？33¢33%
Trader consensus currently assigns a 67.5% implied probability to a Democratic win in the 2028 US presidential election, versus 32.5% for Republicans. This positioning stems from the early cycle dynamics following the 2024 contest and the 2026 midterms, where historical base rates for party performance, incumbent fatigue patterns, and swing-state turnout models inform assessments. Recent polling aggregates and primary signals in battleground states highlight competitive positioning for potential nominees, while economic indicators and legislative outcomes in Congress provide key variables that could shift probabilities ahead of the general election.
规则
2028年美国总统选举将于2028年11月7日星期二举行。 本市场将以在2028年选举中当选美国下一任总统的候选人所属政党为准进行结算。 本市场的结算依据为美联社、Fox News和NBC。三个来源都宣布同一政党获胜后，本市场即结算。如果截至就职日（2029年1月20日），三个来源尚未都宣布同一政党获胜，本市场将根据实际宣誓就职者进行结算。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。