- 乌克兰和平公投会在2027年前通过吗？4¢
Ukraine's ongoing martial law prohibits referendums and elections, while constitutional rules require a nationwide vote with high turnout thresholds and millions of signatures to authorize any territorial changes in a peace settlement. Recent polling shows majority support for a referendum in principle and conditional openness to concessions with security guarantees, yet no ceasefire has materialized amid stalled talks, continued strikes, and Russian insistence on maximalist terms. Traders' 96.2% "No" consensus reflects these procedural and diplomatic barriers within the short window to 2027. A verified ceasefire followed by rapid legislative adjustments and verified signature collection could still enable resolution before the deadline.
规则
如果截至 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET，乌克兰正式通过了关于俄乌战争的和平公投，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 俄乌战争和平公投是指任何与俄乌战争中的和平相关，或与旨在结束战争的和平协议相关的全国性投票。 如果全国范围内有效投票的多数支持该提案，则符合条件的公投将被视为通过。此后对公投合法性的法律质疑或其他质疑不会影响本市场的判定。 本市场判定的主要依据将是乌克兰政府的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。