- 特朗普会在2027年前不再担任总统吗？4¢4%
The strong trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain in office through 2026 reflects the absence of major health incidents, credible 25th Amendment discussions, or advancing impeachment proceedings since the start of the term. Following the 2024 election outcome and January 2025 inauguration, primary political drivers include sustained congressional majorities and institutional barriers to early removal, consistent with historical patterns for sitting presidents. The November 2026 midterms represent a key upcoming event that could alter legislative dynamics, yet current positioning shows limited expectation of disruption. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the implied probability include sudden medical developments or unforeseen legal actions capable of prompting resignation or removal.
规则
如果唐纳德·特朗普在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前辞职、被免去总统职务，或以其他方式在任何一段时间内不再担任美国总统，则此市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 若在此市场结束日期之前宣布唐纳德·特朗普辞职或被免去职务，此市场将立即判定为“是”，无论宣布的辞职或免职何时生效。 只有永久免职才符合条件。暂时免职（例如暂时援引《第二十五修正案》第 3 条，或援引未获国会两院支持的第 4 条）或未导致免职的弹劾，均不予计算。 如果《第二十五修正案》第 4 条的援引得到确认（即国会两院以三分之二票数支持副总统和内阁关于总统无法履行职责的认定），则符合以“是”结算的条件。 本市场的结算依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。