- Elif Eralp会成为下一任柏林市长吗？86¢86%
- Stefan Evers会成为下一任柏林市长吗？12¢12%
- Steffen Krach会成为下一任柏林市长吗？<1¢<1%
- Werner Graf会成为下一任柏林市长吗？<1¢<1%
- Kristin Brinker会成为下一任柏林市长吗？<1¢<1%
5%86%Elif Eralp成交量 $17.4万
2%12%斯特凡·埃弗斯成交量 $5.9万
0.3%Steffen Krach成交量 $6076
Die Linke’s 25.7 percent vote share in the September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election positioned Elif Eralp as the frontrunner to become Berlin’s next Regierender Bürgermeister, with traders assigning her an 86.5 percent implied probability. The party secured the largest bloc of seats, opening an arithmetic path to a left-leaning coalition with the Greens and SPD that would elect her to the office. Coalition exploratory talks advanced in late October, though internal debates over security concerns and antisemitism allegations tied to party figures introduced minor friction. Stefan Evers of the CDU, whose party finished second at 18.8 percent, holds an 11.9 percent chance under a narrower alternative coalition scenario. Remaining named candidates register negligible shares, reflecting limited realistic paths outside the dominant post-election arithmetic. Resolution awaits formal election by the new parliament, potentially extending into 2027.
规则
选举柏林众议院议员的议会选举定于 2026年9月20日 在柏林举行。 本市场将判定为指定选举后下一位正式就任柏林市长（Regierender Bürgermeister）的人选。 要计入结算，该人士必须正式宣誓就职。任何临时或代理市长均不计入本市场的判定。 如果截至 2027年5月31日 23:59 ET，仍无人就任该市长职位，本市场将判定为“其他”。 本市场判定的主要依据将是柏林众议院的官方信息；但也可以采用可信报道的一致意见。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。