- 2027年前的北约条款 5？3¢3%
Russia's ongoing hybrid operations against NATO members—including drone incursions, sabotage, and airspace violations—have intensified in 2026 without crossing into direct conventional attacks on alliance territory, reinforcing trader consensus that Article 5 invocation remains unlikely before 2027. NATO leaders continue to signal robust collective defense through updated military plans and reaffirmed commitments, while Moscow has calibrated its actions to test resolve without triggering full alliance response. Recent diplomatic efforts around Ukraine negotiations and persistent shortfalls in aid further underscore the focus on containing rather than expanding the conflict. Although hybrid incidents could produce casualties or miscalculations that alter thresholds, the current pattern of calibrated pressure and alliance preparedness sustains the elevated probability assigned to no invocation.
规则
如果任何北约成员国在 2025年11月5日 至 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 之间的任何时间援引《北大西洋公约》第 5 条，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 本市场的主要判定依据将是北约（nato.int）的官方信息；不过，可信媒体达成的共识也足以作为判定依据。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。