- 全国普选票协议会在2028年选举前实施吗？30¢30%
Recent Democratic trifectas in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada following the 2026 midterms have created a legislative pathway to add 61 electoral votes to the existing 222 in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, potentially exceeding the 270 threshold needed for activation ahead of 2028. Lawmakers in those states have begun discussing introduction of joining legislation in 2027 sessions. However, enactment requires passage through both chambers and gubernatorial approval in each, a process that failed in Michigan during its prior Democratic control and faced veto in Nevada previously. Republican opposition, including constitutional challenges under the Compact Clause and questions over congressional consent, plus the tight timeline to meet the July 2028 cutoff, sustain trader consensus favoring non-implementation at 71 percent.
规则
如果截至 2028年11月6日 23:59 ET，已将《全国普选票州际协定》制定为法律的各州及哥伦比亚特区合计拥有过半数选举人票，则本市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 本市场将考虑所有同时将《全国普选票州际协议》制定为法律、并意图使其对2028年总统选举生效的司法辖区。选举人票总数以结算日期生效的选举人分配为依据。如果某司法辖区已废除该协议或退出该协议，以致不再是成员，则不计入统计。针对该协议整体或任何州实施该协议的禁制令或其他法律行动，与本市场的结算无关。 主要结算来源将是各州官方立法记录和National Popular Vote组织的状态页面（https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status）；不过，也可以采用可信报道的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。