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Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, now postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its mandate amid security constraints from the prior Israel-Hezbollah conflict, occur within a confessional proportional representation system that allocates seats by sect and favors fluid alliances over outright majorities. This structure, paired with a deeply fragmented electorate where recent surveys show no party exceeding roughly 15 percent support and nearly one-fifth of voters undecided, explains the thin trader consensus across listed options. Amal Movement edges ahead slightly due to Speaker Nabih Berri’s institutional leverage and Shia coordination, while Lebanese Forces draws from Christian strongholds and Hezbollah faces headwinds from disarmament talks and 2024 losses. Key differentiators include regional bases, coalition-building capacity, and positioning on state authority versus armed groups; broader consolidation would require decisive shifts in alliances, diaspora voting rules, or government progress on reforms that could realign voter blocs ahead of the delayed vote.