- J.D.万斯会在12月31日前不再担任副总统吗？5¢5%
JD Vance continues to serve as vice president without any confirmed moves toward resignation, removal, or replacement as of early November 2026. The most recent development shaping trader views is the Republican Party’s midterm losses, which handed Democrats control of both congressional chambers and prompted Vance to publicly attribute the results to the ongoing Iran conflict while distancing from aspects of the administration’s record. This has fueled speculation about 2028 succession dynamics, with attention shifting toward figures such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, though President Trump has not signaled any intent to alter the vice presidency. Historically, vice presidents depart early only in rare cases involving health, scandal, or voluntary resignation tied to higher office bids—none of which apply here. Key upcoming factors include the January 2027 start of the new Congress, which could alter legislative leverage, and any late-breaking foreign policy or domestic developments within the current term. Trader consensus currently prices low near-term probability of Vance leaving the role before standard term-end scenarios.
规则
如果 JD·万斯在市场创建至指定日期（ET）之间的任何一段时间内不再担任美国副总统，该市场将结算为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 如果在该市场结束日期之前宣布 Vance 辞职或被免职，该市场将立即结算为“是”，无论宣布的辞职或免职何时生效。 如果指定个人被拘留、实际上被免去指定职务，或在本市场的时间范围内以其他方式被永久阻止履行指定职务的职责，则符合结算为“是”的条件。 该市场的结算来源将是 JD·万斯和美国政府的官方信息；但也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。