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The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actress in a drama series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Shailene Woodley’s near-certain market dominance stems from her September 6 victory for Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 Creative Arts Emmys, where she earned her first Emmy for a standout guest arc as Annie on Hulu’s Paradise. Her emotionally resonant performance in key episodes, including “Graceland,” aligned with strong critical reception and the show’s broader awards momentum, outpacing nominees from The Pitt, Pluribus, and The Gilded Age. With the category already decided ahead of the September 14 Primetime ceremony, traders have priced in the outcome at 99.8 percent implied probability. An upset would require an unprecedented reversal of the Creative Arts vote, which remains highly unlikely given the confirmed results and historical stability of these awards.