- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月4日至9月11日期间发布160至179条推文吗？100¢100%
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月4日至9月11日期间发布180-199条推文吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月4日至9月11日期间发布200到219条推文吗？0¢0%
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月4日至9月11日期间发布220到239条推文吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月4日至9月11日期间发240到259条推文吗？0¢0%
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?0¢0%
- 伊隆·马斯克会在2026年9月4日至9月11日期间发布260到279条推文吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月4日至9月11日期间发布300到319条推文吗？0¢0%
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月4日至9月11日期间发布280-299条推文吗？0¢0%
Elon Musk’s high-volume activity on X has anchored trader consensus around the 160-179 tweet range for September 4–11, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability. His typical daily cadence—often 20-plus posts mixing company updates, cultural commentary, and real-time reactions—aligns with historical patterns for the platform’s most active user, reinforced by ongoing visibility around xAI, Tesla, and broader news cycles. This strong positioning reflects consistent output rather than any single spike. An upset into the 140-159 bracket would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as extended travel, regulatory hearings, or deliberate offline focus, scenarios that have occurred but remain infrequent given Musk’s established habits.
规则
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.