- 埃隆·马斯克将在2026年9月5日至9月7日期间发布90至114条推文吗？5¢
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月5日至9月7日期间发布140到164条推文吗？<1¢
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月5日至9月7日期间发布240条以上推文吗？<1¢
- 埃隆·马斯克将在2026年9月5日至9月7日期间发推文少于40条吗？24¢
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月5日至9月7日期间发布40-64条推文吗？48¢
- 埃隆·马斯克在2026年9月5日至9月7日期间会发65至89条推文吗？26¢
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月5日至9月7日期间发布115-139条推文吗？1¢
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月5日至9月7日期间发布165-189条推文吗？<1¢
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月5日至9月7日期间发布190至214条推文吗？<1¢
- 埃隆·马斯克将在2026年9月5日至9月7日期间发布215-239条推文吗？<1¢
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 5 12:00 PM ET to September 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent moderate posting rhythms and the Labor Day weekend timing position the 40-64 tweet bracket as the market favorite at 47.5% implied probability. Historical data from settled Polymarket markets show Elon Musk frequently landing in the 40-64 range during quieter stretches, with recent weekly averages hovering near 52 posts in comparable periods and an overall daily mean around 39 posts. Weekend activity tends to dip below weekday peaks, especially without major breaking news or platform controversies to drive engagement. Supporting context includes Musk’s ongoing focus on X platform metrics, Cybercab updates, and Tesla developments, yet no high-velocity catalysts are scheduled for September 5-7. The 65-89 bracket (25.5%) and sub-40 range (23.5%) reflect trader caution around potential short bursts of replies or announcements, while higher brackets remain thinly traded due to the short three-day window and historical precedent for restrained holiday-period output. Traders appear to be pricing in steady but not explosive activity consistent with Musk’s established patterns absent external spikes.