- 2026年阿肯色州中期选举参议员的总投票数会少于600,000张吗？<1¢
- 2026年阿肯色州参议员中期选举的总投票数会在600,000到675,000之间吗？<1¢
- 2026年阿肯色州参议员中期选举的总投票数是否将在675,000至750,000之间？<1¢
- 2026年中期选举中，阿肯色州参议员的总投票数是否将在750,000到825,000之间？3¢
- 2026年中期选举中，阿肯色州参议员的总投票数是否将在825,000到900,000之间？28¢
- 2026年中期选举阿肯色州参议员的总投票数是否将在900,000到975,000之间？36¢
- 2026年中期选举阿肯色州参议员的总投票数会在975,000到1,050,000之间吗？33¢
- 2026年中期选举阿肯色州参议员的总投票数是否会达到1,050,000或以上？3¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the low-competitiveness 2026 Arkansas Senate contest between incumbent Republican Tom Cotton and Democrat Hallie Shoffner, trader estimates cluster tightly around 825,000–1.05 million total ballots because the Solid Republican fundamentals and limited statewide mobilization efforts point to typical midterm participation without the surge seen in battlegrounds. Recent primary turnout data and polling averages showing Cotton’s double-digit lead reinforce expectations of steady but not elevated Republican base engagement alongside modest Democratic participation in a state last won by Democrats for Senate in 2008. Key variables that could shift volumes include the effectiveness of get-out-the-vote operations, early and absentee voting trends through early November, and any national political developments that alter voter enthusiasm before Election Day.