- 2027年前会有国家退出欧盟吗？2¢
Trader consensus on no EU member state withdrawing before 2027 reflects the absence of any active Article 50 triggers, scheduled referendums, or credible exit campaigns with sufficient momentum. Eurosceptic parties in major states such as Germany’s AfD have recently shifted emphasis from immediate departure toward internal reforms and opt-outs, while polling in countries like Austria shows rising support for continued membership. The short remaining timeline precludes the multi-year constitutional, negotiation, and ratification processes seen in prior cases. Budget disputes, enlargement debates, and national elections may intensify tensions, yet these developments center on influence within the bloc rather than departure. A sudden crisis-driven referendum or major party reversal in a key capital remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome.
规则
如果任何欧盟（EU）成员国在2026年12月31日 23:59 ET之前退出EU，此市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 EU成员国一旦正式启动退出程序和／或正式通知欧洲理事会其退出意向，即被视为已经退出，无论退出是否在本市场的时间范围结束后才完成。 本市场的主要判定依据是欧盟及欧盟成员国的官方信息；但也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。