- 共和黨會贏得 WY-AL 的眾議院席位嗎？96¢
- 民主黨會贏得 WY-AL 的眾議院席位嗎？4¢
Wyoming’s deep Republican partisan alignment and history of strong GOP performance in federal contests underpin trader consensus favoring Chuck Gray for the state’s at-large House seat. Gray secured the nomination in a crowded August primary and received a recent endorsement from President Trump, while the open seat created by Harriet Hageman’s Senate bid has not altered the district’s structural tilt. Democratic nominee Lisa Kinney, a former state senator, faces the challenge of mobilizing voters in a state that has remained in Republican hands since 1978. With the November 3 general election approaching, some forecasters have noted Gray’s relatively narrow primary plurality and limited statewide popularity as reasons for modest rating adjustments, yet most maintain a safe or solid Republican outlook. Late developments such as unusually high turnout shifts, major scandals, or significant national headwinds would be required to alter the current probability distribution reflected in prediction market pricing.
規則
本市場將根據在 2026 年期中選舉中贏得美國眾議院 WY-AL 國會選區席位的候選人所屬政黨進行結算。期中選舉將於 2026年11月3日 舉行。 候選人的政黨歸屬，將以該候選人在本市場的結算資訊來源明確判定 2026 年所有眾議院選舉結果時，在選票上列明或以其他方式可確認的政黨隸屬關係為準。若候選人的選票上未列明其屬於民主黨或共和黨，則將依據本市場判定來源對所有眾議院選舉作出最終判定時，該候選人最近一次表示有意加入其黨團會議的政黨，將其視為該黨的成員。 本市場將根據可信報導所形成共識指出的選舉結果結算。如有任何歧義，本市場將僅依據美國政府公布的官方結果判定，具體而言，以聯邦選舉委員會（https://www.fec.gov/）公布的結果為準。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。